Oil and Gas Interests in Central Asia

In a previous article, Why the Taliban Are Not Terrorists, I suggested that the political decision to exclude the Taliban from the official State Department list of terrorist organizations has something to do with a proposed pipeline through Afghanistan to carry Caspian Sea oil and gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and ultimately India. My hypothesis is tentative, so I am hoping to add to the research in this article to make my point more firmly.

Again, the hypothesis is tentative and is little more than a motivation for research. I am not attempting to spin a conspiracy theory. My assumption most important to understanding the story is that "national security" often means nothing more nor less than "American interests", which means economic interests, primarily energy resources such as crude oil and natural gas. Growing demand from Asia has prompted a market for central asian oil and gas, and it is in America's economic interests to secure that market. I believe this is a motivation in our foreign policy decisions regarding Afghanistan and its former rulers, the Taliban.

Introduction

It is without a doubt that the US economy is dependent on foreign sources of oil. We do not produce nearly enough energy for our own demands, and we likely never will. It is, therefore, in our economic interests to secure future foreign sources of oil and other energy products. Let me repeat, that we are talking about long-term, future, interests. It would seem that our occupation of Iraq is an attempt to secure one source of oil by building a reliant ally with great supplies. Note that in this argument, we do not need to be pumping that oil right now; we simply need to occupy those fields for the future. Aside from middle eastern fields, the largest in the world, the next source to secure access to would be central asian fields, particularly those in the Caspian Sea region.

Image link There are two major competing proposals to bring oil and gas from central asia to south and east asia. The demands for energy resources in China, India, and Pakistan have driven interests in these pipelines as their demand for energy grows. The first would originate in Turkmenistan and would cross Afghanistan into Pakistan (hence the acronym TAP), and the second would pipe Iranian oil to Pakistan, bypassing Afghanistan to the north. Security concerns in Afghanistan have given "momentum" to the proposed Iranian pipeline. It is, therefore, in American (oil) interests to secure southern Afghanistan.

At some point, it might be beneficial to negotiate Taliban support for securing the financial interests of the pipeline. We have seen that Pakistan has done just that, striking a peace accord with Taliban militias. This may be coincidental to our government's unwillingness to list the Taliban as a terrorist organization, and the pipeline is certainly not a stated reason for this reconciliation, but I find the patterns remarkable. On the one hand, there is the all-important and ever politicized "Global War on Terror", and on the other, the needs of securing stability for the sake of (economic) progress.

Yes, at this point, the narrative is little more than innuendo. That is why I seek to work from a bold (and hypothetical) statement to an investigation of the potential relationship. Why? Why propose such a conspiracy theory? Does anyone remember the Dubai Ports World deal? Would you not be more genuinely and justifiably outraged if at some point we "negotiate with terrorists" by offering the Taliban financial incentives to avoid the pipeline contractors? But they are not terrorists, and such a listing would preclude any dealings with them.

Caspian Sea

Caspian Sea oil and gas is crucial to the energy security of Russia and eastern Europe. In fact, the vast majority of oil and gas from Turkmenistan, whose fields are primarily Caspian Sea fields, goes to Russia and onward to Europe. Iran, too, has interests in these pipelines, and I would suggest this contributes to Russian-Iranian ties and indeed, Russian ties to the broader middle east.

Although, large amounts of energy products are being transported from the Caspian Sea to Europe through Turkmenistan, a deal with Russia prevents Turkmenistan from seeking more profit from these routes. Therefore, Turkmenistan is keenly seeking alternative routes for its energy products and those of Iran. As I suggested above, this motivation of Turkmenistan seems to drive much of the conflict in central Asia.

Image link

Russian influence on European supplies

Russia has flexed its muscles in the last few years in order to gain greater influence in the pipeline deals that bring oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Iran into Europe. In January of 2006, Russia shutdown a pipeline running through the Ukraine. The following year, a pipeline was shutdown feeding gas to Europe through Belarus. The impact of these actions was to force eastern European nations to make deals with Russia in order to restart the flow of energy.

Because of this and other factors, Russia has become a much larger player in the energy markets of the Eurasian continent. This is not in the interests of the United States. In fact, due to Russia's potential impact on our allies in Europe, we have a real obligation to help reduce the influence of Russia in the markets of central Asia.

Enter Afghanistan.

Summary

In the race to secure future sources of energy products, there are 5 major competitors: the United States, Russia, China, India, and Europe. Pakistan is among others in the central asian region that wish to increase their supply of energy products, especially with their neighbors' demands in southern asia and eastern europe. Providing energy to 4 of 5 major competitors and Pakistan, central asian nations, including Afghanistan, sit at the nexus of a developing market for oil and gas.

Options involving Russia and Iran have no real benefit to the US; therefore, our interests lie in the TAP pipeline. The rhetorical "war on terror" had its genesis in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, yet we do not list the Taliban as a terrorist organization. I argue this is, in part, because, as a political organization, the Taliban offered to guarantee the TAP pipeline's security in Afghanistan. Indeed, at this point, they could offer such guarantees into Pakistan, as well. Listing them as terrorists would increase security concerns for the pipeline project, and negate the ability of American oil interests to deal with them on any basis.

Sources

Note: These are sources of quotes and basic information for the article. These sources in no way support or so much as mention the hypothesis presented here.

1. Asian Development Board: Pakistan Oil and Gas Conference 20041 Are Regional Gas Pipelines Possible? (2004)
2. Asian Development Board: South Asian Gas Demand Strong Enough for Two Pipeline Schemes (2005)
3. Sydney Morning Herald: Turkmenistan to boost ties with Russia (2007)
4. Turkmenistan Daily Digest: Turkmenistan Project (2003)
5. Wikipedia.org: European pipeline map (unknown date)

Also, India Forum seems to have been interested, and they provide a variety of links.